Jakkie Cilliers
How can Africa turn its demographic growth into prosperity?
More about Jakkie Cilliers
Jakkie Cilliers has spent much of his career asking how societies can move from conflict toward stability and development. Born in Stellenbosch into a liberal Afrikaans family, he spent 14 years with the South African Defense Force, earning a B.Mil., a master’s degree, and a PhD while on active duty. He rose to the rank of lieutenant colonel and was decorated for operational commands in Angola before he resigned from the military for political reasons in 1988.
From 1991, Jakkie Cilliers played a leading role in shaping South Africa’s post-apartheid security order. He met members of the ANC’s armed wing, including their military leader Chris Hani, and helped develop ideas for a democratic defense force, drawing in part on West Germany’s concept of the soldier as a “citizen in uniform.” He co-founded the Institute for Defense Policy, which later became the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). He led the ISS until 2015 and now chairs its board.
Over time, his focus moved from conflict itself to the conditions that produce it and opportunities for effecting change. Concluding that instability and violence were symptoms of deeper problems, particularly poverty and underdevelopment, he turned increasingly to strategic foresight, long-term forecasting, and scenario planning. Today he heads the ISS African Futures and Innovation program and is an Extraordinary Professor at the University of Pretoria.
His books include Fate of the Nation, Africa First!, The Future of Africa, and Africa Tomorrow. As a Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow, he worked on Africa’s Road to Prosperity, examining the structural forces that could shape the continent’s development over the coming decades. A central argument is demographic: Africa is the only continent whose labor force is still growing, and from around mid-century many countries could begin to benefit from a demographic dividend. For Jakkie Cilliers, that makes Africa a long-term economic opportunity, rather than a burden, for Europe.
last updated: 2026
Lebenslauf
1956 Born 16 April in Stellenbosch, South Africa. Full name Jacobus Kamfer Cilliers.
1974 – 1988 Enlists in the South African Defense Force; artillery officer and an operational commander, decorated for large operations across the border into Angola
1974 – 1976 B.A. (B.Mil.) in Military Operational Art and Sciences, University of Stellenbosch
1979 – 1981 Hons BA in Strategic Studies, University of South Africa (UNISA).
1979 – 1982 M.A. (Distinction), Strategic Studies, University of South Africa (UNISA). His thesis on insurgency and counter-insurgency in Zimbabwe is quoted in Parliament by the opposition leader. Receives Bronze Medal from the South African Society for the Advancement of Science and the H Bradlow Research Bursary.
1984–1987 DLitt et Phil, University of South Africa (UNISA). Thesis on collective political violence in South Africa from 1976 to 1984.
1985 Publishes Counter-Insurgency in Rhodesia. Reissued by Routledge in 2015.
1990 Co-founds the Institute for Defense Policy (IDP) with P.B. Mertz. Executive Director until 2015.
1990 – 1996 Plays a central role in transforming the South African armed forces and establishing civilian control over the military.
1996 The IDP is renamed the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). Its research focus shifts from South Africa to the African continent.
2015 Steps down as Executive Director of the ISS and becomes Chair of the ISS Board of Trustees and head of the African Futures and Innovation (AFI) program at the ISS office in Pretoria.
2017 Publishes Fate of the Nation: 3 Scenarios for South Africa's Future (Jonathan Ball Publishers). Best-selling analysis on the country's political, economic, and social prospects.
2020 Publishes Africa First! Igniting a Growth Revolution (Jonathan Ball Publishers), using eleven scenarios to map how the continent could accelerate development.
2021 Publishes The Future of Africa: Challenges and Opportunities (Palgrave Macmillan, Cham).
2022 Publishes Africa Tomorrow: Pathways to Prosperity (ISS / African Futures).
Aug–Dez 2025 Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow, Robert Bosch Academy, Berlin.
2026 Publishes Africa's Road to Prosperity: 10 Things to Know (Tafelberg and Jonathan Ball)
ongoing Extraordinary Professor in the Centre for Human Rights and the Department of Political Sciences, University of Pretoria. Serves on the editorial boards of the African Security Review, the South African Journal of International Affairs, and Global Trends Analysis. Regular commentator on local and international radio and television.
Jakkie Cilliers Richard-von-Weizsäcker-Fellowship
Mapping Africa’s Road to Prosperity
During his Richard von Weizsäcker Fellowship in Berlin, Jakkie Cilliers completed his book Africa’s Road to Prosperity: 10 Things to Know, a guide to the forces that will shape Africa’s economic and political future. The book, published in August 2026, draws on years of research by the African Futures and Innovation program of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and is written for policymakers, government executives, and others working with or investing in Africa. Jakkie Cilliers’ central question is: How can the world’s fastest-growing region overcome extreme poverty, create enough jobs for its rapidly expanding labor force, and accelerate development?
Turning demographic growth into prosperity
Jakkie Cilliers’ starting point is Africa’s demographic trajectory. Its expanding working-age population creates enormous potential for growth, but only if economies can generate sufficient employment. He examines what would allow African countries to move faster than today’s development path, including major investment in infrastructure and more efficient energy systems, stronger regional trade integration, and economic modernization.
Ten choices that could change Africa’s future
The argument is deliberately practical rather than predictive: Jakkie Cilliers identifies structural obstacles as well as opportunities, including the role of land ownership and traditional authority in constraining economic change. His central conclusion is conditional but optimistic: convergence with global income levels is possible if African countries make the right policy choices. For Jakkie Cilliers, that means building the infrastructure and energy systems African economies need, making cross-border trade easier, and changing land rules that can hold back investment and productivity.
